Wild weekend at Watkins Glen

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Which one of the following things happened this weekend?

1) Robby Gordon made more friends than enemies.

2) Bill Elliott showed another reason they call him "Awesome Bill from Dawsonville" when he gave up his ride so Boris Said would get a chance to race.

3) NASCAR's winningest active driver on a road course, Jeff Gordon, simply drove off the track while leading with two laps to go.

4) Tony Stewart continued his annual summer display of driving prowess, winning his third race in four events.

5) Two of NASCAR's biggest names, Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya, got into a yelling and shoving match during the race.

The answer, as any avid Nextel Cup fan will tell you, is all of the above.

The Centurion Boats at the Glen was one of the most compelling races of the year. The drama began even before the green flag dropped.

After driver Robby Gordon self-destructed in a Busch Series race at Montreal a week ago, he was in the doghouse of many fans and NASCAR. Though he may have been wronged by NASCAR in a caution-flag ruling, his punting of race leader Marcos Ambrose during the race's final laps was not appreciated.

But owner Robby Gordon showed some intestinal fortitude when he offered Ambrose his first chance in a Nextel Cup car as "repayment" for his actions. Unfortunately, rain ended Ambrose's chance to qualify, but both owner and driver have said that they will try again sometime later this year.

When Nextel Cup qualifying was rained out of Friday, a number of other drivers were left out in the cold too. One of them, Boris Said, is a favorite up and down the garage and in the stands. His car didn't have enough owner points to qualify, and the only way he would be able to see the race was from the stands.

Then Bill Elliott stepped forward and offered his car to Said, who thought the racing legend was joking at first. But Elliott was serious, and after working out the details, Said would start from the back of the field. The "road course specialist" who taught many Nextel Cup drivers how to drive at Infineon and Watkins Glen finished a solid 14th. Better still, the "Saidheads" in the stands got a chance to see their favorite drive on the track.

The race itself was as exciting a road-course race as NASCAR has ever produced. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon were the class of the field, leading 71 of 90 laps. In the opening portion of the race, Gordon led Stewart, but on lap 14 Stewart took command. He was still in control on lap 45 when he inexplicably went too deep into turn one and spun the No.20 Home Depot Chevrolet.

Gordon jumped on the slip-up, as Stewart fell all the way to 19th before he could restart his car and get going. From there, Stewart drove with all the considerable talent that the Rushville, IN native owns and with two laps to go was back in second place pressuring Gordon.

Gordon had won nine times on road courses, and the usually unflappable driver seemed headed for No. 10. But in the same corner that Stewart had spun out earlier, Gordon showed that he was human after all. Like Stewart, he took it too deep into the corner, the car jumped on him and he found himself watching helplessly as Stewart flew by him and on to the victory.

And of course, what would a NASCAR event be without an argument between drivers? This one was between two pretty good ones - 2007 Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

It started when Montoya was hit from behind heading into the same treacherous turn one that Jeff Gordon and Stewart had so much trouble with. This time Montoya was sent careening into Harvick who could see his championship aspirations going up in tire smoke.

The two were stopped in the "grass" and both drivers were clearly angry. Harvick at Montoya, because that's who he saw hit him and Montoya at Martin Truex Jr., the driver who had push him into Harvick. Montoya tried explaining the situation, but Harvick wouldn't hear it. The two began shoving each other and had to be broken up before it got too bloody.

All-in-all, the race showed was what makes NASCAR so popular - great driving and great emotion.

Bravo!

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.