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03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The acquisition of Vince Carter has paid off so far for Eastern Conference power Orlando, which will shoot for its sixth straight win tonight versus the Los Angeles Clippers in the second test of a three-game homestand at Amway Arena.
Carter scored a team-high 25 points in Sunday's hard-fought 96-94 win over the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in the opener of the residency, while double-double machine Dwight Howard muscled his way to 15 points and 16 rebounds for the Southeast Division-leading Magic, who are second in the conference standings and 18-5 in their previous 23 games. Howard leads the league with 50 double-doubles this season.
"This was just a battle. It was much more a battle than a basketball game," Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "It was extremely physical, both teams fought extremely hard the entire way."
Jameer Nelson finished with 15 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in a winning effort. Meanwhile, Carter needs 15 points to pass Eddie Johnson (19,202) for 45th place on the all-time scoring list.
The Magic will close out the residency on Thursday versus Chicago and are 25-6 as the host this season. They have won four straight in central Florida.
Los Angeles will continue a five-game road trip this evening and opened the trek on a sour note, dropping a 107-85 decision against the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City. Drew Gooden led the team with 20 points and 12 boards, while Chris Kaman recorded 12 points and 13 rebounds for LA, which has lost three straight overall and six in a row as the guest.
Rasual Butler and Baron Davis each had 11 points in the lopsided setback.
"I think we shot our bullets early," Gooden said. "Ran out of ammunition in the second half. I think our legs caught up with us. It's tough to play here. The crowd got into it."
The Clippers, who have lost 10 of their last 11 road games since January 25, will also visit the Heat, Bobcats and Spurs on the road swing and are 7-24 away from home this season.
In injury news for the Clips, guard Eric Gordon is questionable against the Magic with a sore right leg. Gordon is second on the team with 17.2 ppg.
Orlando defeated Los Angeles, 97-86, back on December 8 this season at Staples Center and has won six straight in the series. The Clippers are winless in their last three trips to Amway Arena.
<< 2010 Conference USA Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in five years, someone
other than Memphis is the top seed in the Conference USA Tournament, as the
Texas-El Paso Miners won the regular-season title with a 15-1 finish. Winners
of 14 straig
<< Blazers' Przybilla undergoes surgery
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland Trail Blazers center Joel Przybilla
underwent surgery late Monday to repair a ruptured right patella tendon.
It was the second such procedure for Przybilla, who first suffered the injury
on Decemb
<< 2010 Big 12 Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Another year and another championship for
Kansas, which captured its sixth straight Big 12 regular-season crown with a
15-1 finish. The No.1 ranked Jayhawks are the top-seed for the sixth time in
the 14-year
<< Orioles renew contracts of Jones, Wieters
Sarasota, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have renewed the
contracts of young stars Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brad Bergesen and Nolan
Reimold, while also agreeing to 2010 contracts with 22 other players.
Jones is en
Surging Bucks host Allen, Celtics >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweet-stroking veteran Ray Allen has already recorded his
20,000th career point and will add to that mark tonight, when the Boston
Celtics hit the road to Milwaukee for a showdown with the Bucks.
On Sunday, Allen hit a go-
North Texas takes on Troy in Sun Belt title tilt >>
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Troy Trojans and the second-
seeded North Texas Mean Green have advanced to the championship game of the
2010 Sun Belt Conference Tournament, and they will compete for an automatic
bid to the "B
Bulldogs battle Raiders for Horizon League crown >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the fifth straight season the 12th-
ranked Butler Bulldogs will take part in the Horizon League Tournament
Championship Game when they host the Wright State Raiders this evening at the
Hinkle Fieldhouse.
IUPUI and Oakland collide for Summit League title >>
Sioux Falls, SD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The IUPUI Jaguars and the Oakland Golden
Grizzlies will battle tonight in the championship game of the Summit League
Tournament. The prize for the winner is an automatic bid to the NCAA
Tournament.
IUPUI,
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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