Capitals, Panthers ready for Southeast showdown

Hockey Betting Lines

03/17/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers will try to avoid their longest losing streak in 2 1/2 months this evening, when they take on the Southeast Division- leading Washington Capitals at BankAtlantic Center.

The Panthers have lost three straight and four of their last five games. That skid has come at a bad time, as the club is now ninth overall in the Eastern Conference, a point behind eighth-seeded Carolina.

Florida hasn't dropped four in a row since doing so from December 26-31.

The Panthers' losing streak was extended on Saturday with a 4-3 shootout setback to Tampa Bay. After a spirited overtime, the Lightning's Steven Stamkos lit the lamp to give the Lightning the edge in the first round of the shootout. David Booth and Michael Frolik then came away empty on their subsequent chances for Florida to give the Lightning the win.

Booth had two goals and a helper in regulation -- including the 50th of his career, and Frolik also netted a goal.

The Panthers were without defenseman Bryan McCabe, who has missed the last three games due to facial surgery required after he was hit with a puck versus St. Louis on March 7. McCabe has 12 goals and 21 assists in 56 games this season and could return tonight.

Florida lost the opener of a five-game homestand and is 18-9-6 as the host this year.

The Capitals will try to hand the Panthers another home setback this evening and rebound from a 5-1 loss to Atlanta last night, the Thrashers' franchise- record sixth win in a row.

Jose Theodore started the game in net, but was pulled after giving up four goals on 19 shots for the Capitals, who had both a three-game overall winning streak and a five-game road run stopped. Simeon Varlamov came on in relief and allowed one goal on six shots.

Eric Fehr scored late in the third period for Washington, which sits in the third spot in the Eastern Conference with 92 points, one behind New Jersey.

Washington was without defenseman Mike Green due to flu-like symptoms and he is questionable again for tonight. Green leads all NHL blueliners with 24 goals and 60 points.

Alex Ovechkin failed in his first chance to become the first Capitals player to ever notch three separate 50 goal seasons in last night's loss. He also had a 10-game point streak end (7 goals, 7 assists), while Alexander Semin had his nine-game run halted (7g, 9a). Semin is also one goal shy of his 30th of the season.

Washington is 17-13-4 on the road and plays the second contest of a five-game swing tonight.

The Capitals and Panthers have split four meetings so far this year, but Washington has won four of the six overall in the series. The club has also won in two straight and three of its last four visits to BankAtlantic Center.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.